QuantDesk® Machine Learning Forecast
for the Week of July 18
US markets experienced a week of sequential record breaking highs, while global equities rallied on hopes of further accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus. Both Japan and the UK indicated further easing in the form of lower rates, reduction of banks’ margin requirements and other accommodative actions needed to add liquidity and thus further stimulate their respective economies. As the US second quarter earnings season began, reports seem to be in-line or ahead of expectations. In addition, June’s US retail sales were stronger than expected and China’s GDP growth of 6.7% was steady and slightly ahead of Q-1s numbers.
On the surface, all indicators point to a strengthening US economy with low unemployment, moderate corporate earnings growth and a rise in CPI (consumer price index). Investors, however, are still cautious primarily due to the impending Fed tightening and more importantly, world’s events.
So far, the US markets have shrugged off significant geopolitical events. To name a few:
- Brexit and the uncertain political future of the UK, Northern Ireland and Scotland, not to mention the EU as a whole.
- The threat of ISIS and frequent horrific terrorist attacks in Europe, Turkey and the Middle East.
- North Korea’s continuous nuclear threats to its southern neighbor and the US.
- Most recently, Turkey’s failed coup attempt.
The overall sentiment is that, politically, the world is on the verge of significant instability while federal reserves are tirelessly trying to keep it all together by artificially injecting massive stimulus to maintain economic growth.
Image 1: SPY June 28th to July 14th - Source: Google Finance
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
High Dividend Stocks
In a low (sometimes negative) yield environment, investors find high-dividend yield stocks an attractive alternative to fixed income. The idea behind quality companies paying dividends in excess of their peers and the market is that when stocks prices retreat due to market or sector downturns, their dividend yield ratio strengthens, making them more attractive and thus likely to limit their drawdown. In addition, these stocks are likely to rebound more quickly when the market or their respective sectors strengthens. Unfortunately, the method by which an attractive opportunity is uncovered can be complex because not every high yield (defined as dividend divided by the stock price) projects a sound investment opportunity.
High yield could be due to a company’s weakening fundamentals. In other words, a drawdown in a company’s stock price could make the ratio of dividend to price relatively higher for the wrong reasons.
Here are just a few metrics to consider:
- Dividend yield should be compared to market average (S&P 500, in our example).
- Dividend yield should also be compared to sector or sub-sector average (by GICs code).
- Payout Ratio: We are looking for companies paying dividends that didn’t suffer a price drawdown in excess of the market or their peers. A good method is to evaluate the company’s payout ratio, dividends divided by their net income.
- Return on equity (ROE), debt to equity, free cash flow: We are looking for companies with strong fundamentals and adequate cash. A number of conditions will add confidence in their ability to pay or even increase future dividend payouts, such as:
- Return on equity (ROE) greater than the average of the S&P 500.
- Debt to equity ratio lower than the average of the S&P 500.
- Free cash flow to dividend (FCF/Div) ratio must be greater than 1, indicating available cash to make dividend payments.
What makes this stocks selection even more challenging is that the above criteria don’t yield a static list since new companies frequently rise to meet the above selection constraints, while others that have been on the selection list no longer pass the scan. In addition, the high-dividend yield strategy is only suitable for certain market conditions. When the market expects high growth, with higher interest rates, these stocks tend to underperform.
The backtest below is a result of simulating a high-dividend yield selection screen while applying Lucena’s machine learning Forecaster and Optimizer to determine how to allocate the portfolio’s cash between 25 potential constituents. The portfolio is re-assessed every two weeks. As can be seen, the portfolio has outperformed the benchmark handsomely with a relative excess return of almost 303%. On the other hand, the portfolio did not fare as well in the 2nd half of 2008 and 2015. Lastly, the portfolio boasts a year-to-date total return of 34.69%.
Image 2: Backtest simulation of high-dividend yield optimized bi-weekly from January 1, 2006 to July 16, 2016.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Analysis
BlackDog took a little break from its outstanding run in the past few weeks, retreating by 2.12% but maintaining a commanding lead over the US benchmarks year-to-date and trailing twelve months. Tiebreaker lagged slightly, dropping 0.38%.
- DIA gained 2.00% (SPDR Dow ETF).
- SPY gained 1.489% (SPDR SP-500 ETF).
- Tiebreaker model portfolio lost 0.38% and currently stands at a YTD return of -0.81%.
- BlackDog 2X model portfolio lost -2.12%, holding a YTD gain of 10.87% and ahead of the SPY by 3.90%.
The table below delineates a trailing 12 months, a YTD comparison between the two model strategies we cover in this newsletter (BlackDog and Tiebreaker), and the two ETFs representing the major US indexes (the DOW and the S&P).
Image 3: Last week’s changes, trailing 12 months, and year-to-date gains/losses.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Model Tiebreaker: Lucena’s Active Long/Short US Equities Strategy:
Tiebreaker: Paper Trading model portfolio performance compared to the SPY from 9/1/2014 to 7/15/2016.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Model BlackDog 2X, Lucena’s Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy:
BlackDog 2X: Model portfolio performance compared to the SPY and AQR’s risk parity fund Class I, from 4/1/2014 to 7/15/2016.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Appendix
For those of you unfamiliar with BlackDog and Tiebreaker, here is a brief overview: BlackDog and Tiebreaker are two out of an assortment of model strategies that we offer our clients. Our team of quants is constantly on the hunt for innovative investment ideas. Lucena’s model portfolios are a byproduct of some of our best research, packaged into consumable model-portfolios. The performance stats and charts presented here are a reflection of paper traded portfolios on our platform, QuantDesk®. Actual performance of our clients’ portfolios may vary as it is subject to slippage and the manager’s discretionary implementation. We will be happy to facilitate an introduction with one of our clients for those of you interested in reviewing live brokerage accounts that track our model portfolios.
Tiebreaker:
Tiebreaker is an actively managed long/short equity strategy. It invests in equities from the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 and is rebalanced weekly using Lucena’s Forecaster, Optimizer and Hedger. Tiebreaker splits its cash evenly between its core and hedge holdings, and its hedge positions consist of long and short equities. Tiebreaker has been able to avoid major market drawdowns while still taking full advantage of subsequent run-ups. Tiebreaker is able to adjust its long/short exposure based on idiosyncratic volatility and risk. Lucena’s Hedge Finder is primarily responsible for driving this long/short exposure tilt.
Tiebreaker Live Interactive Brokers Portfolio Performance
Live performance reports are taken from an interactive brokers account which attempts to follow Tiebreaker’s model closely with the following potential differences:
- Transactions Fees - Performance is net of transactions fees.
- Management Fees - Performance is net of management fees.
- Manager’s discretion – Manager can use own discretion as to final trade executions. For example, employing VWAP (volume weighted average price) and/or manually monitoring exit during stop loss and target gain.
- Hard to borrow and restricted stocks - Hard to borrow, and restricted stocks may be substituted with highly correlated alternatives.
- Dividends, interest or any other credits are reinvested.
- Slippage - Depending liquidity, large block purchases could impact certain stock prices unfavorably.
Tiebreaker Model Portfolio Performance Calculation Methodology
Tiebreaker’s model portfolio’s performance is a paper trading simulation and it assumes opening account balance of $1,000,000 cash. Tiebreaker started to paper trade on April 28, 2014 as a cash neutral and Bata neutral strategy. However, it was substantially modified to its current dynamic mode on 9/1/2014. Trade execution and return figures assume positions are opened at the 11:00AM EST price quoted by the primary exchange on which the security is traded and unless a stop is triggered, the positions are closed at the 4:00PM EST price quoted by the primary exchange on which the security is traded. In the case of a stop loss, a trailing 5% stop loss is imposed and is measured from the intra-week high (in the case of longs) and low (in the case of shorts). If the stop loss was triggered, an exit from the position 5% below, in the case of longs, and 5% above, in the case of shorts. Tiebreaker assesses the price at which the position is exited with the following modification: prior to March 1st, 2016, at times but not at all times, if, in consultation with a client executing the strategy, it is found that the client received a less favorable price in closing out a position when a stop loss is triggered, the less favorable price is used in determining the exit price. Since March 1st, 2016, all trades are conducted automatically with no modifications based on the guidelines outlined herein. No manual modifications have been made to the gain stop prices. In instances where a position gaps through the trigger price, the initial open gapped trading price is utilized. Transaction costs are calculated as the larger of 6.95 per trade or $0.0035 * number of shares trades.
BlackDog:
BlackDog is a paper trading simulation of a tactical asset allocation strategy that utilizes highly liquid ETFs of large cap and fixed income instruments. The portfolio is adjusted approximately once per month based on Lucena’s Optimizer in conjunction with Lucena’s macroeconomic ensemble voting model. Due to BlackDog’s low volatility (half the market in backtesting) we leveraged it 2X. By exposing twice its original cash assets, we take full advantage of its potential returns while maintaining market-relative low volatility and risk. As evidenced by the chart below, BlackDog 2X is substantially ahead of its benchmark (S&P 500).
In the past year, we covered QuantDesk’s Forecaster, Back-tester, Optimizer, Hedger and our Event Study. In future briefings, we will keep you up-to-date on how our live portfolios are executing. We will also showcase new technologies and capabilities that we intend to deploy and make available through our premium strategies and QuantDesk® our flagship cloud-based software.
My hope is that those of you who will be following us closely will gain a good understanding of Machine Learning techniques in statistical forecasting and will gain expertise in our suite of offerings and services.
Specifically:
- Forecaster - Pattern recognition price prediction
- Optimizer - Portfolio allocation based on risk profile
- Hedger - Hedge positions to reduce volatility and maximize risk adjusted return
- Event Analyzer - Identify predictable behavior following a meaningful event
- Back Tester - Assess an investment strategy through a historical test drive before risking capital
Your comments and questions are important to us and help to drive the content of this weekly briefing. I encourage you to continue to send us your feedback, your portfolios for analysis, or any questions you wish for us to showcase in future briefings.
Send your emails to: [email protected] and we will do our best to address each email received.
Please remember: This sample portfolio and the content delivered in this newsletter are for educational purposes only and NOT as the basis for one’s investment strategy. Beyond discounting market impact and not counting transaction costs, there are additional factors that can impact success. Hence, additional professional due diligence and investors’ insights should be considered prior to risking capital.
For those of you who are interested in the spreadsheet with all historical forecasts and results, please email me directly and I will gladly send you the data.
If you have any questions or comments on the above, feel free to contact me: [email protected]
Have a great week!
Lucena Research brings elite technology to hedge funds, investment professionals and wealth advisors. Our Artificial Intelligence decision support technology enables investment professionals to find market opportunities and to reduce risk in their portfolio.
We employ Machine Learning technology to help our customers exploit market opportunities with precision and scientifically validate their investment strategies before risking capital.
Disclaimer Pertaining to Content Delivered & Investment Advice
This information has been prepared by Lucena Research Inc. and is intended for informational purposes only. This information should not be construed as investment, legal and/or tax advice. Additionally, this content is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any investment product or service.
Please note: Lucena is a technology company and not a certified investment advisor. Do not take the opinions expressed explicitly or implicitly in this communication as investment advice. The opinions expressed are of the author and are based on statistical forecasting based on historical data analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future success. In addition, the assumptions and the historical data based on which an opinion is made could be faulty. All results and analyses expressed are hypothetical and are NOT guaranteed. All Trading involves substantial risk. Leverage Trading has large potential reward but also large potential risk. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. If you are neither a registered nor a certified investment professional this information is not intended for you. Please consult a registered or a certified investment advisor before risking any capital.