QuantDesk® Machine Learning Forecast
for the Week of September 11th, 2017
US Steel Corporation (X)
by Erez Katz, CEO and Co-founder of Lucena Research.
In many instances when we introduce Lucena and our machine-learning capabilities to deep-value, bottom-up analysts, the initial response is somewhat dismissive. In their minds, a technologist who doesn’t possess the deep knowledge they have acquired over decades of research, can’t add meaningful value. It is often seen however that when we present a tangible and an applicable use case, many turn more receptive to the concept of overlaying their thoughtful research with some quantitative measure.
Overlaying Machine Learning Research for US Steel Corporation:
I chose US Steel because it is an established company with many fundamental qualifications for a deep value research.
- Year-to-date US Steel has had a dismal performance of negative (24%).
- In April, due to a lackluster 1st quarter earnings, the stock plunged (34%).
- In August however, the stock rebounded 17% when 2nd quarter earnings turned positive as reported in July.
US Steel moved from loss to profitability reporting a revenue increase of 22% and earnings per share of $1.48 versus a loss of $0.32 per share in the 2nd quarter last year.
- US Steel’s former CEO Mario Longhi, was replaced by the board with a new CEO David Burritt.
- Full year projection was revised higher for fiscal year 2017, from $260M to $300M.
- Greater demand for steel is commensurate with economic expansion and the projected GDP growth bodes well for steel production.
- Steel import disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey should advance steel prices in the short term. Further, infrastructure rebuilding in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma is expected to continue to heightened domestic demand for steel.
Political and Macro
- The Trump administration has been committed both pre-and-post election to the revitalization of domestic steel production.
- Potential tariffs on steel imports from china and other steel exporters to the US is probably going to be in play as a political bargaining chip.
- Should the long-awaited Infrastructure bill materialize, it will also propel demand for steel.
- The pending investigation into possible collusion of foreign steel producers to undermine domestic production and possibly force US steel companies into bankruptcy (Known as Section 232 probe), could advance domestic steel interest in lieu of foreign imports in the name of national security.
All in all, there seems to be a lot of reasons to feel good about US Steel. The challenge however, is that with a PE ratio of 158 and a beta of 2.88 the stock is still considered risky and highly volatile. Potentially too risky to stomach by a highly concentrated deep value portfolio. In addition, due to US Steel’s high market relative volatility, it has become a popular derivative play which adds to its short term unpredictable moves.
Quantitative Analysis to the rescue
If we were to have a high conviction in US Steels’ long term trajectory, perhaps we can diversify our portfolio with multiple securities that together “behave” similarly to US Steel. This will enable us to create a more diversified US Steel representation with constituents that are set to benefit when it moves higher but will reduce idiosyncratic exposure from unexpected conditions specific to US Steel.
To accomplish that we use two modules within QuantDesk®.
Portfolio Replication –
Given US Steel (X) daily price time series, find up to 10 securities that together track US Steel’s price. Interestingly, the securities that were discovered by the Portfolio Replicator are somewhat related. Namely, Natural Resources or the Materials sector.
Portfolio Optimization –
Once we have identified the 10 securities that together track US steel, we can now optimize the allocation of the securities to a conservative risk profile.
We now have a diversified representation of US Steel with lower risk exposure but set to benefit from an overall positive sentiment towards the sector and / or similar businesses.
How does it all shape up?
The backtest below, represents the 10 securities optimized weekly for a minimum risk profile against US Steel (the benchmark). As can be seen, there is a high correlation between the optimized 10-securities portfolio and US Steel but the performance of our portfolio is much stronger in total return with a much-reduced max drawdown and daily volatility, leading to a more favorable Sharpe Ratio.
As in past weeks, I want to briefly update you on how the model portfolios and the theme-based strategies we covered recently are performing.
Tiebreaker has been forward traded since 2014 and to date it has enjoyed remarkably low volatility and boasts an impressive return of 48.28%, low volatility as expressed by its max-drawdown of only 6.16%, and a Sharpe of 1.90! (You can see a more detailed view of Tiebreaker’s performance below in this newsletter.)
BlackDog – Lucena’s Risk Parity - YTD return of 13.75 % vs. benchmark of 11.03%
We have recently developed a sophisticated multi-sleeve optimization engine set to provide the most suitable asset allocation for a given risk profile, while respecting multi-level allocation restriction rules.
Essentially, we strive to obtain an optimal decision while taking into consideration the trade-offs between two or more conflicting objectives. For example, if you consider a wide universe of constituents, we can find a subset selection and their respective allocations to satisfy the following:
- Maximizing Sharpe
- Widely diversified portfolio with certain allocation restrictions across certain asset classes, market sectors and growth/value classifications
- Restricting volatility
- Minimizing turnover
We can also determine the proper rebalance frequency and validate the recommended methodology with a comprehensive backtest.
Utilities - Large-Cap Based Actively Managed - YTD return of 36.82% vs. 15.38% of the benchmark!!!
I wrote about utilities last year in an attempt to demonstrate how Lucena’s technology can be deployed to identify fixed income alternatives. Since November 2016 we have been tracking our utilities portfolio, and it has been performing exceptionally well in both total return and low volatility -- well ahead of the S&P and its benchmark, the XLU.
Industrials - Large-Cap Based Actively Managed - YTD Return of 16.06% vs. benchmark of 9.01%
I wrote about an industrial-centric portfolio in January this year. This portfolio was designed to anticipate the administration’s strong desire to invest in infrastructure. The portfolio identifies a well-diversified industrial stock set to track and outperform the XLI (its benchmark).
Forecasting the Top 10 Positions in the S&P
Lucena’s Forecaster uses a predetermined set of 10 factors that are selected from a large set of over 500. Self-adjusting to the most recent data, we apply a genetic algorithm (GA) process that runs over the weekend to identify the most predictive set of factors based on which our price forecasts are assessed. These factors (together called a “model”) are used to forecast the price and its corresponding confidence score of every stock in the S&P. Our machine-learning algorithm travels back in time over a look-back period (or a training period) and searches for historical states in which the underlying equities were similar to their current state. By assessing how prices moved forward in the past, we anticipate their projected price change and forecast their volatility.
The charts below represent the new model and the top 10 positions assessed by Lucena’s Price Forecaster.
The top 10 forecast chart below delineates the ten positions in the S&P with the highest projected market-relative return combined with their highest confidence score.
To view a brief video of all the major functions of QuantDesk, please click on the following link:
The table below presents the trailing 12-month performance and a YTD comparison between the two model strategies we cover in this newsletter (BlackDog and Tiebreaker), as well as the two ETFs representing the major US indexes (the DOW and the S&P).
Model Tiebreaker, Lucena's Active Long/Short US Equities Strategy:
Model BlackDog 2X: Lucena's Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy:
For those of you unfamiliar with BlackDog and Tiebreaker, here is a brief overview: BlackDog and Tiebreaker are two out of an assortment of model strategies that we offer our clients. Our team of quants is constantly on the hunt for innovative investment ideas. Lucena’s model portfolios are a byproduct of some of our best research, packaged into consumable model-portfolios. The performance stats and charts presented here are a reflection of paper traded portfolios on our platform, QuantDesk®. Actual performance of our clients’ portfolios may vary as it is subject to slippage and the manager’s discretionary implementation. We will be happy to facilitate an introduction with one of our clients for those of you interested in reviewing live brokerage accounts that track our model portfolios.
Tiebreaker: Tiebreaker is an actively managed long/short equity strategy. It invests in equities from the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 and is rebalanced bi-weekly using Lucena’s Forecaster, Optimizer and Hedger. Tiebreaker splits its cash evenly between its core and hedge holdings, and its hedge positions consist of long and short equities. Tiebreaker has been able to avoid major market drawdowns while still taking full advantage of subsequent run-ups. Tiebreaker is able to adjust its long/short exposure based on idiosyncratic volatility and risk. Lucena’s Hedge Finder is primarily responsible for driving this long/short exposure tilt.
Tiebreaker Model Portfolio Performance Calculation Methodology Tiebreaker's model portfolio’s performance is a paper trading simulation and it assumes opening account balance of $1,000,000 cash. Tiebreaker started to paper trade on April 28, 2014 as a cash neutral and Bata neutral strategy. However, it was substantially modified to its current dynamic mode on 9/1/2014. Trade execution and return figures assume positions are opened at the 11:00AM EST price quoted by the primary exchange on which the security is traded and unless a stop is triggered, the positions are closed at the 4:00PM EST price quoted by the primary exchange on which the security is traded. In the case of a stop loss, a trailing 5% stop loss is imposed and is measured from the intra-week high (in the case of longs) and low (in the case of shorts). If the stop loss was triggered, an exit from the position 5% below, in the case of longs, and 5% above, in the case of shorts. Tiebreaker assesses the price at which the position is exited with the following modification: prior to March 1st, 2016, at times but not at all times, if, in consultation with a client executing the strategy, it is found that the client received a less favorable price in closing out a position when a stop loss is triggered, the less favorable price is used in determining the exit price. On September 28, 2016 we have applied new allocation algorithms to Tiebreaker and modified its rebalancing sequence to be every two weeks (10 trading days). Since March 1st, 2016, all trades are conducted automatically with no modifications based on the guidelines outlined herein. No manual modifications have been made to the gain stop prices. In instances where a position gaps through the trigger price, the initial open gapped trading price is utilized. Transaction costs are calculated as the larger of 6.95 per trade or $0.0035 * number of shares trades.
BlackDog: BlackDog is a paper trading simulation of a tactical asset allocation strategy that utilizes highly liquid ETFs of large cap and fixed income instruments. The portfolio is adjusted approximately once per month based on Lucena’s Optimizer in conjunction with Lucena’s macroeconomic ensemble voting model. Due to BlackDog’s low volatility (half the market in backtesting) we leveraged it 2X. By exposing twice its original cash assets, we take full advantage of its potential returns while maintaining market-relative low volatility and risk. As evidenced by the chart below, BlackDog 2X is substantially ahead of its benchmark (S&P 500).
In the past year, we covered QuantDesk's Forecaster, Back-tester, Optimizer, Hedger and our Event Study. In future briefings, we will keep you up-to-date on how our live portfolios are executing. We will also showcase new technologies and capabilities that we intend to deploy and make available through our premium strategies and QuantDesk® our flagship cloud-based software.
My hope is that those of you who will be following us closely will gain a good understanding of Machine Learning techniques in statistical forecasting and will gain expertise in our suite of offerings and services.
- Forecaster - Pattern recognition price prediction
- Optimizer - Portfolio allocation based on risk profile
- Hedger - Hedge positions to reduce volatility and maximize risk adjusted return
- Event Analyzer - Identify predictable behavior following a meaningful event
- Back Tester - Assess an investment strategy through a historical test drive before risking capital
Your comments and questions are important to us and help to drive the content of this weekly briefing. I encourage you to continue to send us your feedback, your portfolios for analysis, or any questions you wish for us to showcase in future briefings.
Send your emails to: email@example.com and we will do our best to address each email received.
Please remember: This sample portfolio and the content delivered in this newsletter are for educational purposes only and NOT as the basis for one's investment strategy. Beyond discounting market impact and not counting transaction costs, there are additional factors that can impact success. Hence, additional professional due diligence and investors' insights should be considered prior to risking capital.
If you have any questions or comments on the above, feel free to contact me: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a great week!
Disclaimer Pertaining to Content Delivered & Investment Advice
This information has been prepared by Lucena Research Inc. and is intended for informational purposes only. This information should not be construed as investment, legal and/or tax advice. Additionally, this content is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any investment product or service.
Please note: Lucena is a technology company and neither manages funds nor functions as an investment advisor. Do not take the opinions expressed explicitly or implicitly in this communication as investment advice. The opinions expressed are of the author and are based on statistical forecasting on historical data analysis.
Past performance does not guarantee future success. In addition, the assumptions and the historical data based on which opinions are made could be faulty. All results and analyses expressed are hypothetical and are NOT guaranteed. All Trading involves substantial risk. Leverage Trading has large potential reward but also large potential risk. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. If you are neither a registered nor a certified investment professional this information is not intended for you. Please consult a registered or a certified investment advisor before risking any capital.
The performance results for active portfolios following the screen presented here will differ from the performance contained in this report for a variety of reasons, including differences related to incurring transaction costs and/or investment advisory fees, as well as differences in the time and price that securities were acquired and disposed of, and differences in the weighting of such securities. The performance results for individuals following the strategy could also differ based on differences in treatment of dividends received, including the amount received and whether and when such dividends were reinvested. Historical performance can be revisited to correct errors or anomalies and ensure it most accurately reflects the performance of the strategy.